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A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion

The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.

"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually lose but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."

Request for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."