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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple pattern. It commonly serves as a kind of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who oversaw the largest resurgence is handed the award. However, it sparks an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or just the most shocking surprise.

But the latest race is profoundly different. The pool of nominees is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners declining and recent strugglers ascending in unison. During an typical year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in such a chaotic and entertaining year, he's competing with multiple other elite coaches.

Below is how the projected ballot could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his rare talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to spin big plays out of nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost each bet – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the building with the immense hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current isn't a normal year!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has nailed the off-field stuff, which was not a certainty after his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen bet on newbies. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

Following an early hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the team wobbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed after that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him just one place ahead of peers.

Still